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Scenario 3: Those who want more do more
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Domain: World
Definition
THE EUROPEAN UNION ALLOWS WILLING MEMBER STATES TO DO MORE TOGETHER IN SPECIFIC AREAS.
Why and how?
In a scenario where the EU27 proceeds as today but where certain Member States want to do more in common, one or several “coalitions of the willing” emerge to work together in specific policy areas. These may cover policies such as defence, internal security, taxation or social matters.
As a result, new groups of Member States agree on specific legal and budgetary arrangements to deepen their cooperation in chosen domains. As was done for the Schengen area or the euro, this can build on the shared EU27 framework and requires a clarification of rights and responsibilities. The status of other Member States is preserved, and they retain the possibility to join those doing more over time.
By 2025, this means:
A group of Member States decides to cooperate much closer on defence matters, making use of the existing legal possibilities. This includes a strong common research and industrial base, joint procurement, more integrated capabilities and enhanced military readiness for joint missions abroad.
Several countries move ahead in security and justice matters. They decide to strengthen cooperation between police forces and intelligence services. They exchange all information in the fight against organised crime and terrorism related activities. Thanks to a joint public prosecutor’s office, they collectively investigate fraud, money laundering and the trafficking of drugs and weapons. They decide to go further in a common justice area in civil matters.
A group of countries, including the euro area and possibly a few others, chooses to work much closer notably on taxation and social matters. Greater harmonisation of tax rules and rates reduces compliance costs and limits tax evasion. Agreed social standards provide certainty for business and contribute to improved working conditions. Industrial cooperation is strengthened in a number of cutting edge technologies, products and services, and rules on their usage are developed collectively.
Further progress is made at 27 to strengthen the single market and reinforce its four freedoms. Relations with third countries, including trade, remain managed at EU level on behalf of all Member States.
Pros and cons:
The unity of the EU at 27 is preserved while further cooperation is made possible for those who want. Citizens’ rights derived from EU law start to vary depending on whether or not they live in a country that has chosen to do more. Questions arise about the transparency and accountability of the different layers of decision-making. The gap between expectations and delivery starts to close in the countries that want and choose to do more.
Impact on policies
Single market & trade
As in “Carrying on”, single market is strengthened and the EU27 pursues progressive trade agreements.
Economic & Monetary Union
As in “Carrying on” except for a group of countries who deepen cooperation in areas such as taxation and social standards.
Schengen, migration & security
As in “Carrying on” except for a group of countries who deepen cooperation on security and justice matters.
Foreign policy & defence
As in "Carrying on" except for a group of countries who deepen cooperation on defence, focusing on military coordination and joint equipment.
EU budget
As in “Carrying on”; additional budgets are made available by some Member States for the areas where they decide to do more.
Capacity to deliver
As in "Carrying on", a positive agenda for action at 27 yields results; some groups achieve more together in certain domains; decision-making becomes more complex.
Illustrative snapshots
Why and how?
In a scenario where the EU27 proceeds as today but where certain Member States want to do more in common, one or several “coalitions of the willing” emerge to work together in specific policy areas. These may cover policies such as defence, internal security, taxation or social matters.
As a result, new groups of Member States agree on specific legal and budgetary arrangements to deepen their cooperation in chosen domains. As was done for the Schengen area or the euro, this can build on the shared EU27 framework and requires a clarification of rights and responsibilities. The status of other Member States is preserved, and they retain the possibility to join those doing more over time.
By 2025, this means:
A group of Member States decides to cooperate much closer on defence matters, making use of the existing legal possibilities. This includes a strong common research and industrial base, joint procurement, more integrated capabilities and enhanced military readiness for joint missions abroad.
Several countries move ahead in security and justice matters. They decide to strengthen cooperation between police forces and intelligence services. They exchange all information in the fight against organised crime and terrorism related activities. Thanks to a joint public prosecutor’s office, they collectively investigate fraud, money laundering and the trafficking of drugs and weapons. They decide to go further in a common justice area in civil matters.
A group of countries, including the euro area and possibly a few others, chooses to work much closer notably on taxation and social matters. Greater harmonisation of tax rules and rates reduces compliance costs and limits tax evasion. Agreed social standards provide certainty for business and contribute to improved working conditions. Industrial cooperation is strengthened in a number of cutting edge technologies, products and services, and rules on their usage are developed collectively.
Further progress is made at 27 to strengthen the single market and reinforce its four freedoms. Relations with third countries, including trade, remain managed at EU level on behalf of all Member States.
Pros and cons:
The unity of the EU at 27 is preserved while further cooperation is made possible for those who want. Citizens’ rights derived from EU law start to vary depending on whether or not they live in a country that has chosen to do more. Questions arise about the transparency and accountability of the different layers of decision-making. The gap between expectations and delivery starts to close in the countries that want and choose to do more.
Impact on policies
Single market & trade
As in “Carrying on”, single market is strengthened and the EU27 pursues progressive trade agreements.
Economic & Monetary Union
As in “Carrying on” except for a group of countries who deepen cooperation in areas such as taxation and social standards.
Schengen, migration & security
As in “Carrying on” except for a group of countries who deepen cooperation on security and justice matters.
Foreign policy & defence
As in "Carrying on" except for a group of countries who deepen cooperation on defence, focusing on military coordination and joint equipment.
EU budget
As in “Carrying on”; additional budgets are made available by some Member States for the areas where they decide to do more.
Capacity to deliver
As in "Carrying on", a positive agenda for action at 27 yields results; some groups achieve more together in certain domains; decision-making becomes more complex.
Illustrative snapshots
- A group of countries establishes a corps of police officers and prosecutors to investigate cross-border criminal activities. Security information is immediately exchanged as databases are fully interconnected. Criminal evidence produced in one country is automatically recognised in the others.
- Connected cars are widely used in the 12 Member States that have agreed to harmonise their rules and standards. The same Member States develop a set of rules to clarify ownership and liability issues linked to the Internet of Things.
- A group of countries works together and agree on a common “Business Law Code” unifying corporate, commercial and related domains of law, helping businesses of all sizes to easily operate across borders.
- Workers in 21 Member States can access additional and increasingly similar labour rights and social protection regardless of their nationality or place of residence.
- Six countries acquire a drone for military purposes. This can be used for sea and land surveillance, as well as in humanitarian rescue operations. A joint defence programme is set up to protect critical infrastructure against cyber-attacks.