Many of the profound transformations Europe is currently undergoing are inevitable and irreversible. Others are harder to predict and will come unexpectedly.

Europe can either be carried by those events or it can seek to shape them. We must now decide.

The five scenarios presented in this White Paper will help steer a debate on the future of Europe. They offer a series of glimpses into the potential state of the Union by 2025 depending on the choices we will jointly make.

The starting point for each scenario is that the 27 Member States move forward together as a Union.

The five scenarios are illustrative in nature to provoke thinking.
They are not detailed blueprints or policy prescriptions. Likewise, they deliberately make no mention of legal or institutional processes – the form will follow the function.

Too often, the discussion on Europe’s future has been boiled down to a binary choice between more or less Europe. That approach is misleading and simplistic.

The possibilities covered here range from the status quo, to a change of scope and priorities, to a partial or collective leap forward. There are many overlaps between each scenario and they are therefore neither mutually exclusive, nor exhaustive.

The final outcome will undoubtedly look different to the way the scenarios are presented here. The EU27 will decide together which combination of features from the five scenarios they believe will best help advance our project in the interest of our citizens.